NFL Draft Exit Survey

What did the 2024 draft teach us? What were the best value picks? What about the worst value? Who will make the most immediate impact?

The 2024 draft is officially in the books. Time to get started on the class of 2025. Okay, sure, we’ll hang with this group for a little while longer. This is The Read Optional’s 2024 Exit Survey. I’m answering questions on the the best player-to-scheme fits, the best value picks in each round, any broader takeaways we can take away, the reaches, the surprising picks, the steals and everything in-between.

I’ll wrap this series up with a mailbag section. So if you have any questions on this class, reply to this email or drop a question in the comments section below.

Let’s go.

What’s the biggest macro takeaway?

It’s time to stop talking about slot corners as being any less valuable than those that play on the perimeter. Sure, the top three guys selected in the class are – largely – outside defenders, but by my back-of-the-notebook accounting, seven slot/slot-safety hybrids were selected in the second round compared to one perimeter corner. In the third round, it was one slot defender to three perimeter corners. 

Teams voted with their picks. They preferred to snag those inside guys over the outside projects early on Day Two, before swooping for maybe-possibly starter-grade outside corners in the third round. 

Playing corner is damn near impossible. Playing in the slot is impossible. It is football’s most caffeinated position. Playing inside, or in the slot, gives a receiver more space to operate, and more space for the defender to constrict. It forces the DB to navigate through traffic, without having the convenience of using the sideline as an extra defender. Capping the slot is difficult at the best of times. There are more route combinations available inside, and they’re higher percentage throws. That’s why offenses are more consistently planting their best playmaker in the most valuable slot – and why defenses are responding by putting a premium on DBs who can play inside or outside, or moving their most valuable corner into the slot on a gameplan to gameplan basis.

Think about this: Justin Jefferson lined up in the slot on a third of his snaps last season, which doesn’t account for stacks or tight, condensed formations where he is still charted as playing ‘on the outside’. By the same measurement, Ceedee Lamb played 58% of his snaps in the ‘slot’; AJ Keenan Allen was inside on 57% of his snaps; Chris Olave 39%; Tyreek Hill 37%; Stefon Diggs 36%;  AJ Brown 27%.

Those ‘locked’ coverages I’ve waffled on about, are about trying to pinch the best of both worlds: locking onto the slot and simplifying the assignment for the inside corner while zoning up on the outside. 

It is hard to play as a pure, press-and-trail boundary spin-in and snap-out these days. Offenses are too good. They’re too sophisticated at using motion and shifts to create matchups, to drag one corner into a spot they’re less comfortable. They weaponize a defenses tendencies, against themselves. They figure out how to use a team’s coverage checks to draw the boundary guy into the uncomfortable terrain inside; or they pack the formation, tightening the split of receivers and turning a boundary guy into a pseudo slot — or else the defense vacates a corridor in the middle of the field. Condensed formations are in. Attacking space by first tightening the formation and then daring a pure perimeter guy to shift his, loosen his hips, and break out into space it the meta.

The era of banking on a guy who plays only vertically, using the sideline as an extra defender, is fading away. Three way go — in, out, flip-and-turn — corners are a must. If you’re fortunate to land one who can also play as a classic press-and-trail or press-man corner, you’ve been handed the ticket to the Chocolate Factory. But we only have one of those right now: Sauce Gardner. (Two, at a push, if you’re a Patrick Surtain super-fan.)

Kyle Hamilton have shown The Way in recent drafts. Hamilton was a first round pick because of his perceived versatility; Branch slipped to the second, and was immediately one of the top slot corners in the league. Both have played the bulk of their snaps in the slot at the pro level. If you can even find a league-average player at that position, it’s immensely valuable. If you can find a plus one, it’s the holy grail.

Teams still bet on Nate Wiggins (30th overall, Ravens), Terrion Arnold (24th overall, Lions), and Quinyon Mitchell, (22nd overall, Eagles) in the first round ahead of slot-only defenders. But how teams allocated their DB resources on Day Two is telling. We are not far off these premium slot defenders routinely going in the middle of the first round.

Who will have the biggest immediate impact?

The Cardinals didn’t overthink it with the fourth pick. In Marvin Harrison Jr, they took the cleanest, most polished receiver in the draft at a position of pressing need.

The thing that stands out with Harrison is not that he wins, but how he wins. Michael Irvin is a guru of all things receiving. He consistently talks about receivers who win late in the rep. Win early in the NFL, particularly down the field or at the intermediate level, and corners have a chance to recover. Everyone – sans Daniel Sorensen – is fast. Receivers who find ways to back down corners, to brake late, to win away from their body, to nudge, barge, and uncover just as the ball is arriving, have the best shot at succeeding.

No one in this class did that better than Harrison in college. He is versatile in his release patterns. He modulates his tempo out in the route. He demolishes press coverage. He eats versus zone. He might not be the deepest burner, but he’s always able to create a cushion. 

In a Cardinals offense sorely needing some reliability, Harrison will be the go-to guy from the jump.

What was the best value pick in round 1?

Indianapolis Colts, Pick 15: Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA

It has to be Latu. Jon Ledyard and I went deep on the joys of Latu in our podcast on edge-rushing prospects which you can listen to here. 

Indy would have loved to have been in the Brock Bowers sweepstakes. But with Bowers off the board, the Colts essentially had the No 1 overall pick in the 2024 defensive draft. They used the 15th pick to grab the best edge rusher in the class.

Teams have access to more statistics than ever, but when it comes to the final evaluation, GMs fall back on the oldest method of all: watching the damn games. And if you watch those games, it’s clear Latu is as gifted as any player in this class. 

There were medical concerns throughout the draft process that initially dinged Latu. He suffered a neck injury at Washington in 2020 and was forced to retire from the sport. During his hiatus, he had multiple operations on his neck and took up rugby in Seattle. In 2022, he was cleared to return to football and transferred to UCLA, where he spent the next 24 months dusting all before him. 

It’s the style that grabs you with Latu. He’s the most distinctive pass-rushing prospect in recent years. It’s tempting to say Latu plays at his own pace, but that phrase is typically attached to slower guys. The 23-year-old is explosive in tight spaces. He’s good slow and fast. He plays at whatever pace serves him. There are times when he isn’t even really rushing the passer, at least not in the traditional sense. It’s as though he’s playing his own sport, some fusion of MMA and interpretive dance; he’s all limbs and head fakes and unorthodox approaches to knifing into the backfield. It’s unconventional to the point of disruption. On one trip, he’s all finesse. The next, he might bulldoze through the same lineman.

Latu can leap; he can win in all three phases of the rush (outside, inside, through the rep); he can mash people on stunts and twists. There are time win he appears to aperate from gap to gap. Unusually for a college rusher, he has reached that rare state of consciousness in which a defender manipulates entire offenses, rather than reacting to them. Some pass-rushers gamble; Latu is counting cards.

There are times when you’re left fielding bad for offensive linemen. Come on, Laiatu. Give this guy a chance. But not Latu. He takes a special almost cruel pleasure in tempting blockers and then punishing them. His tape against Arizona is for mature audiences only.

There are times evaluating Latu when all you can do is shake your head. Watch him versus USC, and you’ll be calling up your chiropractor: 

Latu has an innate sense for how to throw off an opposing lineman. He can move his body in what seems like four different directions at once. He uses those herky-jerky head fakes, stutter steps and wild hands to unnerve blockers. He hits blockers with a stab, forces them to narrow their feet, to destablize their base, and then he moves in for the kill. 

Run through a Best Of tape and you see everything: jabs, stabs, counter, cross-chops, up and unders. There is a vicious euro step. And when he decides to unload, he has thunder in his hands. Rarely do you see a college pass-rusher so refined at winning on all three planes (swooping around the arc; winning through a lineman’s chest; winning through the inside shoulder). Latu marches around with the confidence of a five-year vet.

Winning at the point-of-attack is one thing. Finishing is something else. That sense of anti-gravity – that Latu is dancing above the ground – carries through. He has special contact balance, matched only, in recent drafts, by TJ Watt.

Latu is stylistically mesmerizing, but that style comes with substance. He finished with 27 sacks and 107 total pressures in his two years at UCLA, the highest rate in college football. His 26.2% pass rush win rate in his final year is tied for the highest figure on record. If the surgeries affected his game, it didn’t show up at UCLA. In two seasons with the team he did not miss a game due to injury. Teams may have been concerned early on by the medical process, but as the draft kicked off, it’s clear they defaulted to the tape.

The fit in Indy is ideal. The Colts run a four-down-and-go style when rushing the passer. Last season, they finished 29th in the league in blitz rate last year – and 22nd in pressure rate. They had two choices this season: double down on their style and increase their talent level; become more a blitz-centric defense.

Latu provides the answer. He is a dominant one-on-one rusher who also just happens to hammer people on stunts and twists. He can form the bedrock of a top-tier pass rushing group and elevate the collective. Indy had a slim stunt rate last season for a team that refused to blitz; Latu should solve any all stylistic and talent questions. Chris Ballard was right, they nabbed the best fucking pass-rusher in the draft with the 15th pick. 

How about in round 2?

Detroit Lions, Pick 61: Ennis Rakestraw Jr, CB, Missouri

Three jump out. The Commies were able to grab Johnny Newton at the top of the second round because of lingering reservations over a foot injury. Newton was the best interior defensive lineman in this class: a bundle of hops, power and production. And Washington double-dipped in the second by picking up slot corner Mike Sainristil with the 50th overall pick. 

Sainristil is a pocket rocket slot corner who doesn’t have the prototypical size or deep speed for a corner but who is a fighter up on the line of scrimmage, a willing tackler and an elite blitzer. He’s the kind of guy teams pass over for a prospect at a more ‘valuable’ position … and then shake their heads when he’s making plays in the playoffs

But let’s give the pick here to a player right at the top of the ‘want him on my team’ board: Ennis Rakestraw Jr. The Lions picked up the Mizzou corner with the 29th pick in the second round.

Rakestraw was one of the most under-appreciated prospects throughout the process. If you go tape-for-tape, his game film was better than any cornerback in the class. Measurables hurt his chances of being a first-round pick, but grabbing him at the foot of the second round? Holy moly. Someone call the Department of Justice.

No corner prospect had a better singular showing Rakestraw versus Georgia in 2023, except, maybe Rakestraw versus LSU – an LSU side featuring Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr, and Jayden Daniels, by the way. In fact, there’s no use grabbing samples. Here is the full Georgia game film so you can get a flavor of all things Rakestraw.

Good gawd, man. Save some for everybody else. 

It’s tough to find a comparative single-game snapshot from anyone else. He made NFL plays in an NFL-like scheme against NFL talent versus an NFL scheme. Turn on Rakestraw vs. Georgia, and you’re watching Sunday football game played out on a Saturday – and he delivered.

Rakestraw wins in every way: he bodies people at the line of scrimmage; he wins with technique; he wins with leverage; he wins off the ball; he wins in the slot; he fits versus. the run; he rocks people coming down on screens; he hits. There is smarts, technique and a dose of nasty.

It’s tough to dream up a better fit for the Fighting Dan Campbell’s. Aaron Glenn, Detroit’s DC, wants to lead the league in press-man, bump-and-run coverage. Even last season, with Detroit struggling at corner, the Lions disguised coverages on only 21% of their defensive snaps, well below the league average. They want to get up in your jersey, punch you in the mouth, and chase you all over the field. Last season, they stayed in what are known as closed-closed coverage (cover-3, cover-1, etc.), keeping the middle of the field closed pre-snap and then keeping it closed as the quarterback hit the top of his drop. There was no time for the fun and games of rotations: get on the line, rock someone, and keep it moving.

Living in that world without dudes is tough. Nick Saban calls it cat coverage. Meaning: my cats best be better than your cats. The Lions took Terrion Arnold in the first round, who has more of a press-and-trail skill set at this stage — a player who bumps early in the rep and then drops to a spot. But in taking Rakestraw in the second round, they drafted a player who can toggle with Brian Branch inside or serve as a true Man Everywhere He Goes (MEG) corner while Arnold, a better athlete, develops some of the minutia of press coverage. 

There may be some athletic restrictions, but Rakestraw is a ready to go player who can align anywhere in the defensive backfield. You can’t find players much more valuable than that late in the second round.

Best value pick in round 3?

Cincinnati Bengals, Pick 80: Jermaine Burton, WR, Alabama

Burton flashes first-round talent on film (or MP4 file) but fell to Cincy in the third round due to off-the-field concerns. He’s a long, explosive burner who can play outside or inside. He has the frame and hops to climb the ladder down field, but it’s the work he does in-phase that stands out: he modulates his tempo as well as any of the mid-tier receivers in this class and can separate at any point in the route.

Burton’s skills are an ideal pairing for what Cincy’s offense. Given Joe Burrow’s seeming staunch (is that too harsh?) refusal to evolve elements of the Bengals passing game, they need two things:

1. An inside presence who can stretch the field

2. A big slot type – be it a tight end or receiver – who can win at the intermediate level detached from the formation.

Burton checks both boxes. 

Best value pick in round 4?

New England Patriots, Pick 110: Javon Baker, WR, UCF

Pairing Ja’Lynn Polk in the second round with Baker in the fourth was a nice bit of business from the Pats. Think about it: Polk and Baker tight to the formation, both capable of jutting across the formation or bursting out into open field or pinning someone inside in the run game? Somebody hose me down.

Unless you have a true-blue #1 receiver, you have to build out a receiving corps with complimentary skillsets. In Polk and Baker, the Patriots double-dipped on a pair of receivers whose skillsets dovetail nicely: Polk is the zone destroyer; Baker beats up on press.

Baker was the 14th wide receiver on my board. He wound up being the 18th off the board last week. 

Baker doesn’t have the highest athletic ceiling, but he is an instinctive receiver. There’s some Romeo Doubs to his game. He has an NFL frame and a big wingspan. He knows how to get open versus press and off-coverage. He has a great feel for shrinking his frame and not allowing a clean shot against press.

In all of college football last season, Baker ranked behind only Marvin Harrison and Rome Odunzein 78% success rate versus press (78%). And then he went and mauled doubles at a rate that would make Malik Nabers, Ricky Pearsall and Keon Coleman blush.

Against zone, he kind of, sort of meanders down the field, drifting into open space. In the red zone, he torches fools.

As a blocker, Baker is still learning. He’s happy to take on descending safeties, but there’s a gulf from that to pinning linebackers at the NFL level, something that will be a requirement for Baker in New England. Baker doesn’t have the best-blocking radar, but he’s willing – and that’s the first step. 

The knocks on Baker: he’s an average athlete and has an unusual, choppy stride.

At times, he can look stiff — and there’s a ton of wasted movement. But that in part helps explain why his testing time (sprinter movements) was so weak compared to his on field GPS time (when he’s running, you know, football movements), where he ranked fifth among this year’s receivers.

In a deep receiver class, it made sense that Baker slipped to the fourth round. His route running is not as air-tight and coordinated as needed at the pro level. It’s tough for some teams to spend a second round pick on a receiver who gets by through prolonged stretches on vibes. But he has excellent spatial awareness, and the kind of in-real, field-mapping needed to sit versus zones. But that also meant snapping of his routes early, or aborting the plan altogether. In a rhythm-centric offense, that stuff is tough to get away with. But on deep-breaking options or routes that give a receiver more leeway, Baker can feast.

Best value pick in round 5?

Arizona Cardinals, Pick 138: Xavier Thomas, Edge, Clemson

I’m a believer in Bill Belichick’s ‘fallen blue chip’ philosophy. Belichick was a fan of taking shots on former high-school stars who never quite hit their potential in college. You can think up any number of why a five-star high-school player didn’t quite pan out grade in college: they broke up with their girlfriend; their coach stunk; their strength and conditioning coach was a dick; They fell into an ill-fitting scheme; injuries derailed their growth. 

It could also be that they were misidentified in the first place, or that football was a hobby and not a passion, or that they fell into bad habits off the field. But at the passing rushing spots, taking mid to low-round gambles on former high-school stars with innate athletics gifts is a savvy move. It’s a philosophy that can lead you to snagging Justin Houston or Danielle Hunter. It can also lead you to taking Dominique Easley in the first round. (Oh, Bill.)

Still: juice off the snap is a prerequisite for edge defenders in the NFL. It’s one of those positions with an athletic floor. If you don’t have that natural gas in your shoes, you have no shot. 

Taking a flier on a former blue-chip prospects who didn’t maximize his potential in college is a solid strategy. And the Cardinals did just that by picking up Thomas in the fifth round. Thomas was the No 3. overall high school prospect back in 2018. At Clemson, he never developed into an every-down destroyer, but there are glimpses of the player he could be: a leap-off-the-ball, sub-package rusher.

Xavier finished with a respectable 8.17 Relative Athletic Score, placing him ahead of the likes of Bralen Trice, who wound up going in the third round to the Falcons. In college, teams attacked Thomas with the run, limiting his ceiling as an every-down player. As a sub-defender in a four-down front, though? Sign me up. He has a good blend of bounce, length, tenacity and is comfortable dropping into space as a weak-hook defender. He sets up moves well, wins in multiple ways, and his hands and feet are always tied together in his rush. 

That all chimes with where the Cardinals are heading. At heart, Jonathan Gannon and Nick Rallis want to play in a four-down front and let the pass-rushers fly off the ball. Last season, they embraced the simulated-pressure and zone-pressure worlds, to mixed results. Arizona topped the league in sim pressures at a whopping 36%. Through that prism, grabbing Thomas makes sense: he can drop into space from the edge or fly upfield in four-man rushes. He will probably only be a situational player, but that situation (obvious passing downs; third downs) is the most valuable of them all. 

Let’s give a special shout-out to Qwan’tez Stiggers, too. In recent drafts, we’ve seen players selected from Australia. We’ve had a tight end with no experience picked out of Germany in the sixth round, thanks to Mike Mayock demanding it on the draft broadcast – that really happened! What we haven’t seen is an American-born player selected out of Canada. And we haven’t seen an American-born player drafted who played no college football.

That changed this year. The Jets drafted Stiggers with the final pick in the fifth round. Stiggers was the top rookie in the CFL last season, finishing with five interceptions and 53 tackles in 16 games. He had initially signed to play college football at Division II Lane College, before dropping out after the death of his father. He then signed with the Toronto Argonauts in 2023 after a stop in Fan Controlled Football, a league where viewers make the play calls through an app. 

But Stiggers is more than a fun story. The 22-year-old is a dynamic athlete with the ideal build for a modern corner. He’s long, has slick feet and is a natural playmaker once the ball is in the air. 

Teams will travel to Mars if they think they can unearth a cornerback who can be a difference-maker as a rookie. In Canada, the Jets may have just found a corner who can make an impact right away.

Best value pick in round 6?

Detroit Lions, Pick 189: Mekhi Wingo, DL, LSU

How about grabbing an undersized, twitched-up interior rusher in the sixth round? An applause break, please, for Brad Holmes and the Lions. 

(If you think Brad Holmes is uber-confident now, can you imagine how insufferable he will be if Arnold, Rakestraw and Wingo pan out? What about when you realize he traded up to select a tackle out of British Columbia and moved up to pick a safety the team will convert to running back? Has any GM ever been on such a heater and cashed in his chips this way? Holmes is awesome.)

Like Thomas, Wingo fits the fallen blue-chip theory: he was the sixth overall prospect coming out of high school. But at LSU, Wingo was miscast. They plugged him in as a one-technique, asking him to hold the point. It was a strange evaluation: Wingo fits best as a pogo-sticking pass-rusher who can leap off the ball in double time.

Wingo finished with the 15th overall RAS score among interior linemen, comfortably ahead of Darius Robinson (first round, Cardinals), Maason Smith (Jags, second round), and Brandon Dorlus (Falcons, fourth round). He has the burst to get off the ball, but was asked to plop his ass down in college in a two-gapping front.

There is plenty for Wingo to clean up, bad habits still etched into his game from those years playing as a tilted nose. He has a wonky, tight, I’m-taking-a-dump stance, when he should be lined up in more of a horizontal, explode-off-the-ball stance.

Oof. It honestly painful just looking at it. Who thought that was a good idea? Is that person still employed?

But there are natural traits for Wingo to tap into. He plays with good leverage once engaged and has violent hands. DCs across the league will have been eager to get their hands on him, knowing they can mold him into a different player in the league than he was in college.

Congrats, Aaron Glenn!

Best value pick in round 7?

Buffalo Bills, Pick 221: Travis Clayton, OL, England

Let’s head to England! How about the Bills selecting a player out England who has never played organized football?!?!? 

Chalk this pick up to the league’s International Player Pathway Program. Some players in the league’s IPP program, like rugby star Louis Rees-Zammit, enter the league via free agency. But others are eligible for the draft because they’re in their fourth year out of high school. Travis Clayton (England), Jotham Russell (Australia) and Bayron Matos (Dominican Republic) were eligible for selection from this year’s program.

Clayton is the kind of tantalizing bundle-of-tools talent that will get offensive line coaches weak at the knees. At 6ft 7in and more than 300lbs, Clayton is a former rugby player and boxer who, if you squint hard enough, has the look of an NFL tackle.

Given the success of Jordan Mailata, who recently signed a three-year $66m contract extension with the Eagles, it wouldn’t be surprising to see multiple teams turn their final picks over to IPP graduates moving forward. Mailata’s story is a one-of-a-kind: the rare meeting of an undiscovered gem with a relentless work ethic winding up with the finest position coach in the sport. But Mailata blazing the trail has opened the door for Clayton to be a late draft choice. The Eagles bet on Jeff Stoutland to develop Mailata’s raw tools when they selected the Australian in the seventh round of the 2018 draft – Mailata introduces himself as a graduate of “Stoutland U”. Other teams will hope their staff can do the same, grabbing a developmental prospect at a premium position on a cheap rookie contract.

What was the worst value pick?

I am still baffled that an NFL evaluator had a second-round grade on Patrick Paul. I had a sixth-round grade on Paul, a tackle out of Houston. The Dolphins took him with the 23rd pick in the second round.

The good: Paul is a mammoth tackle with a huge frame and giant mitts for hands. He has athletic upside. The bad? How long do you have? Paul plays too high out of his stance. He has a peculiar, arm-swinging, bear-hug-style approach to pass protection. He lumbers out of his stance, drops his arms to his knees, raises them like Russell Crowe in Gladiator, and then tries to envelope them around a pass-rusher.

It’s bizarre. Gone are the ideals of keeping tight elbows. Of maintaining a study base and exploding into a defender. Gone is the idea of locking on to a defenders breast plate, to cajole and control them away from the quarterback. Gone is the basic principle of punching and moving. Instead, Paul grabs on to the outside shoulders of pass-rushers and hangs on for dear life.

There are hundreds – and I mean hundreds – of reps of Paul hugging opposing pass-rushers and hoping for the best. He elevates out of his stance, narrows his feet on contact and then plays grab-and-go football. Almost all of his positive plays, the ‘wins’, came on plays that should have been called as a hold – and will be at the next level. 

There is a size and tools argument here. But where do you begin with someone so technically unrefined? It’s always better to work with a tackle with sloppy hands but sound feet. But Paul is a net negative with both. When someone plants a hand on his chest (which is always), his base vanishes. His feet are slick until someone engages. Out of his stance, he’s a habitual over-setter, allowing rushers to crash back on his inside shoulder. And he doesn’t have the balance or flexibility to sink and keep up once they go drilling inside. 

Given his frame and mass, Paul should be able to sink against power-rushers. But his stance, his upright set, and his narrow base mean he gets womped by out-to-in rushers. The most project-y of project tackles (Kingsley Suamataia, Caedan Wallace, Giovanni Manu) typically have sloppy technical skills but, once they’re planted, they’re unmoveable off their spot. Not Paul; he gets walked back into his quarterback even when he sets his feet. 

Ask him to set the terms early, and those pesky arms aren’t sure where to be. Allow him to concede a runway, and he gets jolted. His solution to the problem: ditch his balance, lunge forward, and dive head-first into blockers. You can almost hear Maxx Crosby or Khalil Mack cackling from here. 

You cannot win in the NFL when you concede your chest. And Paul concedes his chest by design. 

The Dolphins — and Miami fans — will scream about player development. That’s cool. But much of that work these days has to take place away from the team facility. It takes years. Based on recent trends, you’re looking at year three before project tackles become playable players.

As a draft and stash guy, Paul would have made sense. There is promise in the run game; he can dent the front when his mechanics are aligned. Grabbing him in the second round, though,  with a host of more refined protectors on the board and more solid ‘projects’ on the board was … odd.