The players you want your GM to draft 1.0
The late-riser and the mid-round crush
Each week, I’m diving deep into the questions subscribers want answered ahead of the draft. We have all the traditional draft trappings — the deep dives, the top prospects by position, maybe, just maybe a mock *shudders* — but we’ll close each week with a draft-specific mailbag. Think of it as being an ornery GM sending off your area scout to go check out Southern Illinois’ running back.
As a free subscriber to TRO, here’s a flavor of what’s to come between now and the draft. Oh, and as a thanks for being a subscriber, here’s a special offer — get TRO between now and the draft — the deep dives, the X’s & O’s nerdiness, the podcast — for $3!!!!!
Who made the most money at the Combine?
Pitt interior defensive lineman Calijah Kancey went from being a fringe first-round draft pick to a potential top-ten player. Kancey is an explosive, undersized rusher, and he tested unlike any other recent interior d-lineman:
Yes, that’s a real, actual thing. Kancey ranks in the first percentile in terms of height and weight for interior linemen and in the 95th-plus for get-off, burst and speed.
My personal case of Kancey Fever has reached dangerous levels. Look at this dude:
The question all teams will have: is he really a defensive lineman? Is he and end? A tackle? A hybrid? An overhang? A linebacker? His athletic profile matches up more with fullbacks and short-yardage running backs than any linemen or outside linebackers.
Still: Teams will be intoxicated by Kancey’s springs.
There aren’t many players who can align as head-up nose over the center, slide to the three-tech spot as a get-off-and-go interior rusher and shuffle all the way out the perimeter as a wide-nine or stand-up edge-rusher:
The hops are one thing. They’re Kancey’s value. But there’s enough evidence on tape that Kance is sturdy enough that teams can live with him playing there on run downs to earn all the benefits of having him inside on passing downs:
As a pass-rusher, he’s frenetic. Kancey likes to fit fifteen moves inside one. Undersized, springy tackles are prone to give up on a play if their initial leap-plus-move comes to nothing. But Kancey doesn’t care for stereotypes. Even when he’s stone-walled or caught in a giant’s mitt, when he’s unable to slip or slide away from a lineman, he keeps prodding and probing for an opening; he keeps his feet churning and his hands chopping.
Kancey will be just 22-years-old by the time next season rolls around. He might never become an all-around, everydown rusher. But in the era where everydown is a passing down and teams are lining up with exaggerated split-fronts and five-across looks that scheme up one-on-one matchups, Kancey fits. Plop him in the Eagles front today on passing downs and he would do immediate damage. On a stunt/game-heavy defensive line, he will help create matchup hell for defenses. Someone with those springs, who can corner as well as Kancey can, is going to be tough for any duo along an offensive line to keep up with and pass off – whether he’s the first through the gate or the second-man looping around.
How can you not throw your head back and cackle at that? It’s absurd.
As we get closer to the draft, you will hear comparison to another undersized Pitt defensive tackle throughout the process, a name I shall not repeat here out of respect. In a watered-down class, Kancey has a shot to be a top pick. But to compare him to he-we-shall-not-name is unfair to the prospect himself. Look at the difference in the spider charts:
Outside of the initial get-off, we’re talking about different athletes altogether. One doesn’t push offensive tackles off their spot much when converting speed-to-power; the other could probably uproot the Eifel Tower and eat it for breakfast.
There is no one game where Kancey is a singularly dominant as the former Pitt alum delivered every single damn game. And Kancey just doesn’t deliver the same kind of in-line power as Shmaron Fonald — or that any of the league’s elite have to offer. There’s a world where he’s trapped in an edge-defenders body but isn’t wiggly enough to survive on the perimeter. There’s also a world where he shuffles from in-to-out depending on the scheme, opponent and stunt called. His athleticism, with his willingness to punch inside is valuable. And that he has the twitch to leap from gap to gap and beat linemen out of their stance right across the line will make him an ideal fit in a Niners-style four-down-and-go front.
Like a number of players who will go at the top of this class, Kancey will make him a valuable part of a high-end pass-rush rotation early in his career.
Who is your early midround crush?
Steve Avila!
Avila finished his career at TCU playing right guard, but he shuffled right across the offensive line throughout his college career. He played some right tackle. He played some guard. His bet at the next level: sliding to center.
Avila is a bowling ball of a player who is rock solid in pass protection. He has slick feet for someone with his size (330 lbs) and, umm, frame.
Typically, squat, thick linemen aren’t the quickest to pull and move in space. They win by driving people back off the ball and then sinking into pass pro. They’re vertical players.
Avila wins laterally. He doesn’t quite have the slippery footwork to play on the perimeter as a true tackle, but he has enough lateral twitch to be an effective interior guard. His technique isn’t the cleanest, either. He often plays too wide, or concedes his chest and then embraces the hand fight – something he could get away with in college but would struggle with when Javon Hargrave steamrolls through his chest in the pros. But Avila is a cerebral thinker who wants to get better at the technique stuff; he’s self-reflective and works hard.
Few can pull and skip as well in the run game as Avila:
That’s a 330lbs lineman, folks! I mean, come on now!
AGAIN!
On a long-trap play-action shot, no less! Spicy.
Avila has unteachable speed out of his stance.
Oof. I need a cold shower.
Watching Avila split across the formation and cover ground a man his size should not is mesmerizing. Every offense deserves a boulder who can slice across a formation. You have a wrapper! And you have a trapper! And you have a puller!
At times, with his size, it felt like things came easy to Avila in college. He faced a lot of three-down fronts where he was able to comfortably play in a phone box and cover up some of his technical flaws: Sit, drop anchor, shuffle a little bit in pass pro (in an offense that got the ball out quickly) and drops anchor, then clean people out in the run game. Pair him with a top o-line coach early in his career – a Mike Munchak, for instance – and Avila could be a real gem.
In the NFL, his best bet is to move from guard to center. Every team in the league is looking for a cneter who can replicate some of what Jason Kelce and Creed Humphrey bring to the Eagles’ and Chiefs’ offenses – conceptually. To run the true power-spread – the goal offense for the bulk of the league right now – an offense needs the threat that all five linemen can pull and move in space.
Most offenses max out at three or four. The dominance of the Chiefs’ and Eagles’ offense comes thanks to their ability to pull all five (either solo or as combinations). It opens up a whole new world for the offense in the run game, RPO world, and the play-action shots that flow from that. It presents options, and means that no defensive front is safe. Think you’ve set a decent front to take away a team zone-away run style, and all of a sudden here comes a center wrapping around to kick out your edge defender.
Avila profiles as a player who has the smarts and foot speed o push inside permanently, and he wouldn’t be as exposed as a shuffler in pass protection playing with help in the middle of the line of scrimmage.