It's Prediction Time!

Super Bowl champs, MVP, disaster-waiting-to-happen, breakouts stars. A round of begrudging preseason picks.

We made it.

I’m not a fan of predictions, but over the last week — on podcasts, on Twitter/X/Elon’s torture chamber, by text, and emails from subscribers — I’ve been hit with some version of ‘who you got’. So, predictions it is!

Over the past month, Jon Ledyard and I dug into our team previews by putting each team into tiers on the podcast. If you fancy a binge-listen to get you (even more) fired up for the season, I’d encourage you to listen to those 8-plus hours. I’m going to drop those tiers at the foot of those predictions so that they’re on record and we can all laugh like Nelson Muntz at my idiocy come February. If you’re going to listen to the pods to hear the breakdowns of the team and the rationale for the tiers, it’s best to go in without spoilers.

And if you’re up for a binge-read of preview content, we’ve got you covered with a whole host of deep dives and nerdy breakdowns:

• Which Bill O’Brien did Bill Belichick hire – O'Brien returned to New England this offseason, but was he brought back for a 2011 redux or to push the Patriots into the future?

• The Book of Fangio – the whys and how of the ‘Fangio Defense’ taking over the NFL

• This is Robert Saleh’s moment

• Jordan Love is ready for the big-time

• Here comes Drake London 

• Lessons from AD: All Hail the Lead Draw!

• All aboard the Alontae Taylor hype train

• The plays the NFL should pinch from college: Part I – Lincoln Riley

• The plays the NFL should pinch from college: Part II – Chip Kelly

• The plays the NFL should pinch from college: Part III – Two quarterbacks?!?!

• Podcast: The State of Offensive Football, with Alberto Cantu

• The Bills need more from Ed Oliver

• Every team’s biggest remaining roster hole: AFC

• Every team’s biggest remaining roster hole: NFC

• The biggest deals of free agency, Part I – a deep-dive on Jalen Ramsey’s role in Miami, Tremaine Edmunds in Chicago, Denver’s new o-line, and more

• The biggest deals of free agency, Part II – a deep-dive on Jawaan Taylor in KC, David Long in Miami, Darren Waller in NY, and more

• Lamar Jackson and the evolution of the Ravens’ offense

• Analyzing the picks and scheme fits from the first three rounds of the draft

• ReProgramming the DakBot: What to make of the Mike McCarthy-Prescott marriage

• Should the Raiders deal for Matthew Stafford?

• Podcast: What Eric Bieniemy will bring to Washington

• From the archives: On the evolution of Joe Burrow, and what that means for the upcoming season

Okay, predictions time, because why in the hell not?

(A hat-tip to the folks at Go Long for the preview prompts)

---

Division Winners:

• AFC East: New York Jets

• AFC North: Cincinnati Bengals

• AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars

• AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs

• NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles

• NFC North: Detroit Lions

• NFC South: New Orleans Saints

• NFC West: San Francisco 49ers

AFC WILD CARDS: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens

NFC WILD CARDS: Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: Bengals over the Chiefs

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: Niners over the Eagles

SUPER BOWL: Bengals over the Niners

---

MVP: Trevor Lawrence

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: T.J. Watt

SIX BREAKTHROUGH PLAYERS: Jordan Love; Calvin Ridley; Irv Smith Jr.; Skyy Moore; Will McDonald; Sydney Brown

FIVE MOST DISAPPOINTING PLAYERS: Russell Wilson; Tremaine Edmunds; Jonathan Taylor; DeAndre Hopkins; Marcus Davenport

DISASTER WAITING TO HAPPEN: Sean Payton and Russell Wilson

NFL COACH OF THE YEAR: Robert Saleh, Jets

OFFENSIVE ASSISTANT COACH OF THE YEAR: Todd Monken, Ravens

DEFENSIVE ASSISTANT COACH OF THE YEAR: Vic Fangio, Dolphins

THE All HUNG-OUT-TO-DRY STAFF: Brian Flores; Raheem Morris; Jason Houghtaling; Jordan Somerville

WHAT I MOST WANT TO HAPPEN: Justin Fields evolves as a passer

LEADER IN TRIGGERING FOOTBALLGASMS: Justin Fields

OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Bijan Robinson

DEFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Jalen Carter

MOST SURPRISING TEAM: Commanders

MOST DISAPPOINTING TEAM: Broncos

WORST TEAM: Cardinals

BEST TEAM THAT WON’T MAKE THE PLAYOFFS: Steelers

COACHES ON THINNEST ICE: Brandon Staley; Mike McCarthy; Josh McDaniels; Ron Rivera; Robert Saleh

TOP FIVE TEAMS IN OFFENSIVE EPA/PLAY: Jaguars; Bengals; Lions; Chargers; Eagles

TOP FIVE TEAMS IN DEFENSIVE EPA/Play: Steelers; Dolphins; Eagles; Niners; Cowboys

RUSHING LEADER BY SUCCESS RATE: Bijan Robinson

PASSING LEADER IN THE RBSDM EPA+CPOE Composite: Joe Burrow

NFL PRESSURE RATE LEADER: Maxx Crosby

SACK LEADER: T.J. Watt

ONE BOLD PREDICTION: Aaron Donald is traded before the trade deadline

---

THE PRESEASON TIERS

Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4

Wake Me Up In 2024:

32. Arizona Cardinals

31. LA Rams

30. Las Vegas Raiders

Frisky But Will Lose:

29. Indianapolis Colts

28. Houston Texans

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

26. Denver Broncos

25. Carolina Panthers

24. Chicago Bears

We Best Win Or We’re In Trouble:

23. Tennessee Titans

22. New York Giants

21. Minnesota Vikings

20. Atlanta Falcons

19. Green Bay Packers

18. New Orleans Saints

17. New England Patriots

16. Pittsburgh Steelers

15. Washington Commanders

We have deep playoff aspirations

14. Seattle Seahawks

13. Jacksonville Jaguars

12. Cleveland Browns

11. Detroit Lions

10. Miami Dolphins

9. Baltimore Ravens

8. LA Chargers

It’s Championship Or Bust:

7. New York Jets

6. Dallas Cowboys

5. Buffalo Bills

4. San Francisco 49ers

3. Cincinnati Bengals

2. Philadelphia Eagles

1. Kansas City Chiefs